Lance Knobel nicely sums up the analysis.

By 2050, the European population is predicted by the UN Population Fund to be down to 600 million, from 725 million today (those figures include estimates for immigration). If the trend continues, Europe would be down to 475 million by the end of the century.

A 20 percent drop in 50 years. That's like losing France. A 50 percent drop in 100. That's like losing Scandinavia and Germany too.

Four responses:

1. "public resources must be shifted from helping the old to assisting families with children"
2. "as part of pension reform, there must be an across-the-board attack on obstacles to higher labour force participation, particularly by people over 60 years of age"
3. "obstacles to productivity growth must be removed" and
4. "immigration must be managed".

The shape of things to come.

I was hoping for a few generations of massive immigration from the Middle East, India, and China. An excuse for the exchange of cultural values and experiences. Dubya's political provocations may have put that off for a generation.

How will we stagger toward that future? What compromises and sacrifice must we endure?