Mason Wong asked, "What kind of job market recovery do you think the nation will experience? Slow and gradual recovery over years? Sudden and surprising surge 6 months from now?"

The big factors that concern me in addition to the usual macro indicators:

• How much are VCs and banks funding the small business entrepreneurs who create most of the jobs in any recovery?
  • Ask around. New money isn't available.
• Will the increase in Federal borrowing (to meet budget deficits) suck up the money available for lending used for business expansion?
  • Could force interest rates up.
• Will the Bush/Cheney trickle-down economic policy still be in force?
  • Trickle-down stimulus is slower and less direct than every other means.
• Will resolution of California Gubernatorial and Presidential elections reduce managerial fear and anxiety? In what direction will the results of those elections move consumers?
• Will the average American think our $1 billion a week spending on Afghanistan and Iraq will help or hurt the U.S. economy?
• Is the resumption of a wartime footing and military-industrial complex redirecting innovation (the employment multiplier) from the private sector?
  • Smart people often follow the money. But more jobs are usually made when a new technology sells to the worldwide market instead of just Uncle Sam.
• How fast and far will labor market arbitrage drive down domestic white collar wages, so IT jobs remain here instead of move to India?
  • You're a CIO. Would you resist offshoring your help desk (saving you $2 of $4) if your local workers offer to take a 60% pay cut? A 50% pay cut? How about cutting the pay of your senior software engineers from $75k to $40k a year, and the juniors from $35 to $20?
  • You're a programmer. Would you take those cuts?  
• How badly will state and local government downsizing create new unemployment or impose new costs that stifle economic growth? 

I'm neither an inspired fortune teller nor an informed Mr. Greenspan. I'm betting on fits and starts, uneven growth from county to county and state to state, and a relapse after the 2004 election should Bush win.

[a klog apart]