LiveJournal churns users and squeezes small hosts

A little over six months ago (191 days) I looked at LiveJournal software's population. LJ software powers a number of sites, and I looked at 14 of them. Since then:

• LiveJournal's share grew from 88% to 90% of the community.
• SocialJournal folded. It had 189 active users of the 5255 who'd once tried or used the service.
• The number of cumulative accounts grew 39% to 8.7 million.
• The number of active accounts grew 10% to 1.67 million.
• Growth was not evenly distributed. Only 4 of the 13 services experienced growth in Active Users (users updating in the last 30 days). The two largest (LiveJournal and GreatestJournal grew 13% and 11% respectively). Two of the smaller communities (InsaneJournal and Mweb) grew too, but the other nine lost active users.

This suggests:

• Consolidation. The big get bigger. The smaller fight for scraps.
• Critical mass helps the smaller survive.
• New blood matters. In the last six months, two million people tried LiveJournal, 74 thousand a week. But after abandonment (people who stop blogging) and defection (those who switch to other services), LJ came out only 170 thousand active users ahead. That's a lot of new traffic to do a little better than breaking even.

.	29-August-2004		8-March-2005		191 days
	Cumulative accounts	Active in Last 30 Days	Cumulative accounts	Active in Last 30 Days	Account Growth	Active Growth
livejournal.com	4,346,145	1,337,754	6,366,282	1,508,359	146%	113%
greatestjournal.com	497,134	97,303	817,677	107,996	164%	111%
deadjournal.com	467,746	38,727	476,683	27,063	102%	70%
blurty.com	835,772	36,496	894,159	22,109	107%	61%
crazylife.org	34,537	1,974	37,973	1,489	110%	75%
aboutmylife.net	26,807	1,825	36,889	1,417	138%	78%
plogs.net	6,983	1,126	7,140	41	102%	4%
weedweb.net	19,379	1,084	23,931	1,038	123%	96%
journalfen.net	5,230	596	7,885	562	151%	94%
insanejournal.com	6,605	543	13,042	888	197%	164%
socialjournal.com	5,255	189
needlesspanic.com	26,515	142	26,785	95	101%	67%
minilog.com	8,774	120	9,403	35	107%	29%
blog.mweb.co.za	565	59	969	96	172%	163%
	6,287,447	1,517,938	8,718,818	1,671,188	139%	110%